On June 13, the price index of standard rubber (TSR20) reported 1148.39 points, down 2.21% from the previous issue (June 6, the same below); the price index of mixed rubber (20#) reported 1113.21 points, down 3.04%; the price of concentrated milk The index reported 1284.11 points, down 8%; the natural rubber latex price index reported 1255.65 points, down 6.11%.
In terms of price, the average price of standard rubber and mixed rubber fell slightly; the average price of concentrated milk and natural rubber latex fell sharply. The average price of standard rubber (TSR20) fluctuates in the range of 1702.44-1734.78 US dollars / ton; the average price of mixed rubber (20#) fluctuates in the range of 1675.13-1727.7 US dollars / ton; the average price of concentrated milk fluctuates in the range of 11500-12500 yuan / ton; natural Latex prices fluctuated in the range of 15,961.25-17,000 yuan/ton.
supply side. The production areas in Southeast Asia have started to cut more and more, and the overall supply has shown a trend of increasing; some domestic production areas in Yunnan have too much rainfall, which affects the rubber tapping operation; most areas in Hainan have resumed rubber tapping. With the gradual increase in production, the shortage of supply has been alleviated. Local raw material prices began to fall.
demand side. Due to the shutdown of some tire factories for maintenance, the operating rate of tire factories in the current period fell. Longzhong information data shows that as of June 9, 2022, the operating rate of China's all-steel tire sample enterprises this week was 46.72%, down 11.14 percentage points from the previous month and 19.37 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 50.95% , down 11.07 percentage points month-on-month and 6.57 percentage points year-on-year. Wang Kaifu, a senior natural rubber analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the gradual resumption of work by maintenance companies will stimulate the start of the overall sample. Due to the current limited new orders of enterprises, the industry's low-price competition is fierce, and profits are further compressed. In addition, the company's overall finished product inventory is sufficient, and under pressure from various aspects, the increase in the start-up of the company is still limited to a certain extent. It is expected that the operating rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises will recover recovery in the next cycle.
Car side. The latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that automobile production and sales in May showed a recovery growth, with 1.926 million and 1.862 million vehicles completed respectively, a month-on-month increase of 59.7% and 57.6%, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6%, a decrease compared to the previous year. Monthly narrowed by 40.4 and 35 percentage points. In terms of models, the production of passenger vehicles has been higher than the level of the same period, and the sales volume is slightly lower than the level of the same period.
Comprehensive analysis. On the supply side, the main production areas at home and abroad have gradually entered the full harvest season, and the output of raw materials has grown rapidly; on the demand side, the factory overhaul has ended, the operating rate of the tire factory may have rebounded, the production and sales of automobiles will pick up, and the domestic epidemic situation will be gradually brought under control, or drive downstream Demand grows, and natural rubber is expected to rise slightly.
